On November 17, 2025, the Capillary Technologies IPO entered its second day with a striking contradiction: while one major financial outlet reported just 38% overall subscription, another — Moneycontrol — claimed 52%, with the retail portion fully booked. The twist? Both agreed on one critical detail: the Grey Market Premium (GMP) had climbed to 5% above the IPO price. That’s not just noise. It’s a signal. Retail investors, the backbone of India’s IPO boom, are betting hard. But institutions? They’re holding back.
Conflicting Numbers, Clear Signal
Here’s the thing: Nifty Trader, a Mumbai-based financial analytics platform, published a report at 1:32 pm IST on November 17, 2025, stating the IPO was subscribed just 38%. Meanwhile, Moneycontrol, the heavyweight owned by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., declared it had hit 52%. The discrepancy is jarring. And oddly, Moneycontrol’s own URL says "subscribed-38-on-day-2" — a glitch? A typo? Or did their data feed lag? The exact reason remains unclear. But here’s what isn’t in dispute: the retail investor category, which accounts for 35% of the total issue, was fully booked. That’s rare. And meaningful.
The Grey Market Premium at 5% tells a parallel story. In India’s shadow markets, where unlisted shares trade before the stock even hits the exchange, a 5% premium suggests investors expect a solid listing gain. That’s not speculation — it’s money talking. Traders aren’t betting on the company’s long-term potential. They’re betting on the IPO’s short-term momentum. And they’re right to be cautious: neither figure reached 100%. The IPO, still undersubscribed overall, is hanging in the balance.
Why Retail Is Winning, Institutions Are Watching
The retail portion being fully booked isn’t just a statistic — it’s a psychological turning point. In past Indian IPOs like Zomato (2021) and Nykaa (2021), retail demand often led to oversubscription, which then pulled institutional buyers in. But this time, it’s the opposite. Retail is roaring. QIBs (Qualified Institutional Buyers) and NIIs (Non-Institutional Investors) are silent. Why? Two reasons. First, Capillary Technologies operates in the enterprise SaaS space — a crowded, low-margin field dominated by global players like Salesforce and SAP. Investors are asking: Can this Indian startup scale profitably? Second, market sentiment in November 2025 remains fragile. The Nifty 50 has been volatile, and IPOs like Aether Industries (2024) and Sarvam AI (2025) have seen muted listings. Institutions are waiting for clarity.
But retail investors? They’re not analyzing EBITDA margins. They’re watching GMP. They’re seeing neighbors make money on IPOs. And they’re acting — fast. The fact that the retail quota filled up while the overall subscription lagged suggests a classic Indian IPO pattern: strong grassroots demand, cautious institutional appetite.
What Happens Next? Day 3 Is Critical
The subscription window closes on November 19, 2025. Day 3, on November 18, will be the make-or-break moment. If institutional bids surge — especially from mutual funds, insurance firms, and private equity players — the IPO could still be fully subscribed by the end. But if institutions stay away, the company may have to reduce its price band or extend the offer. That’s not just a financial decision. It’s a reputational one.
Historically, when retail is fully booked but overall subscription is below 70%, the listing price often trades below the IPO price. Look at Delhivery (2022): retail was oversubscribed 27x, but the IPO listed 12% below the issue price because QIBs stayed away. Capillary could face the same fate. The 5% GMP might be a mirage.
The Bigger Picture: India’s IPO Rollercoaster
This isn’t just about one company. It’s about India’s IPO market maturing — or maybe faltering. In 2021, over 100 companies went public. In 2025, the pace has slowed. Investors are tired of losses. They’re no longer buying hype. They want profitability. Capillary Technologies, which provides loyalty and commerce platforms to retailers like Big Bazaar and Reliance, has revenue growth. But its path to consistent profits? Still unclear. That’s the real question hanging over this IPO.
What’s also telling? Neither report disclosed the IPO price band, total issue size, or lead managers. That’s unusual. Even smaller IPOs usually get full disclosure. The silence raises eyebrows. Is this a quiet launch? Or a company trying to avoid scrutiny?
What Investors Should Watch
- Day 3 subscription update (November 18, 2025): Will QIBs jump in?
- Listing date: Expected November 22–24, 2025
- Exchange filings: The NSE and BSE will release the final subscription numbers by 6 pm IST on November 19
- Brokerage reports: ICICI Direct, Kotak, and HDFC Securities are expected to publish analyses by November 19
The market isn’t just watching Capillary. It’s watching whether India’s retail investor confidence can still carry an IPO — even when institutions won’t.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does the retail portion being fully booked matter if the overall IPO is still undersubscribed?
It signals strong retail demand, which often creates listing momentum. But if institutions don’t participate, the stock may open below the IPO price — as seen with Delhivery in 2022. Retail enthusiasm alone doesn’t guarantee a successful listing; institutional backing does.
What does a 5% Grey Market Premium mean for Capillary Technologies’ listing?
A 5% GMP suggests traders expect a 5% gain on the first trading day. But GMP is speculative and often fades if institutional demand is weak. In 2024, 12 IPOs had GMPs above 5% — only 5 listed above the IPO price. Don’t treat GMP as a guarantee.
Why is there a discrepancy between Nifty Trader and Moneycontrol’s subscription figures?
The gap likely stems from timing — data is updated in real time by exchanges, but news sites may pull it at different moments. Moneycontrol’s URL containing "38" suggests a possible publishing error. Always cross-check with official exchange data released after market close.
What happens if the IPO remains undersubscribed after the window closes?
The company can either reduce the price band to attract more bids or extend the subscription period. If neither works, the IPO may be withdrawn. This last happened in India with Laurus Labs in 2023, when weak demand forced a delay and eventual price cut.
Is Capillary Technologies a good long-term investment?
It’s too early to say. The company serves major retailers in India, but faces stiff competition from global SaaS firms. Its profitability timeline is unclear, and revenue growth has slowed in the last fiscal year. Investors should wait for the prospectus and analyst reports before making long-term bets.
Where can I find the official subscription numbers?
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) publish daily subscription data on their websites after market close (6:30 pm IST). Moneycontrol and Nifty Trader are secondary sources — the exchanges are the only authoritative ones.
